Is Nitish Kumar set to be sworn in as CM with BJP help? What this means for Bihar politics?

It’s all however finalised. Speculation is at an all-time excessive that Nitish Kumar is dumping the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the INDIA bloc, and can be becoming a member of palms with the BJP as soon as once more.

Different sources have reportedly stated that the Janata Dal (United) {JDU} chief will resign and take oath as chief minister as soon as once more on Sunday (28 January). If reviews are to be believed then Sushil Kumar Modi will be taking oath as the deputy chief minister of Bihar. As per Information18, the JD(U) has sought time from the Raj Bhawan this night.

If Nitish Kumar does change over to the BJP on Sunday, this would be his fifth political flip — a transfer that has even turned him the title of ‘Paltu Ram’ in politics.

We analyse what went mistaken with the JD(U)-RJD alliance that lead Nitish again into the arms of the BJP and what this change would imply for the INDIA bloc.

A swearing-in on Sunday?

Multiple reviews have stated that the Bihar chief minister will resign over the weekend, and he’ll then take the oath as chief minister on Sunday with the help of the BJP.

It’s necessary to word right here that in the Bihar numbers sport, the JD(U) has 45 seats, whereas the RJD has 79, with the BJP having 78. The Congress holds 19 seats, whereas the CPI (M-L) has 12, two are with the CPI(M) and CPI, the Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) has 4 seats, and the AIMIM has one, plus one Independent legislator. The majority mark in the 243-member Bihar Assembly is 122.

An NDTV report has stated that Nitish Kumar’s seemingly swearing-in on Sunday with the BJP, may also see the swearing-in of two deputy chief ministers from the BJP.

Rumours of this potential transfer acquired a lift after the JD(U) boss cancelled all his engagements for 28 January, together with addressing a public assembly. Moreover, the Bihar governor, who was to journey to Goa tomorrow night, has cancelled his plans.

When requested about the identical, Sushil Kumar Modi advised IndiaToday that the “doors which are closed can open”, calling politics a “game of possibilities”. He, nevertheless, declined to communicate additional on the difficulty.

At this time of uncertainty, former Lok Janshakti Party president Chirag Paswan disclosed that he was in contact with the highest BJP management however termed as hypothetical the query whether or not Chief Minister Nitish Kumar would be acceptable to him as a brand new NDA companion.

He was quoted as telling information company PTI, “I have been in constant touch with the top BJP leadership. I spoke to them before coming here last evening when I held a meeting of party workers. I am going back to Delhi. I have cancelled my trip to late Karpoori Thakur’s village in Samastipur and to Sitamarhi, which I had been wanting to visit after having paid obeisance at Ayodhya.”

What led to this potential cut up?

Rumblings of an sad Nitish Kumar have been doing the rounds for fairly a while. Some JD(U) leaders have been reportedly saying that Nitish has been upset with the INDIA bloc (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance) and their lack of coordination.

According to the JD(U) leaders, the Congress is to blame for this and so they have said that the Grand Old Party’s refusal to talk about seat-sharing has been a significant bone of competition. Moreover, Nitish Kumar is just not blissful, as he has failed to acquire a seat in the alliance, which he believes is in line with his stature. A Information18 report states that it was indicated to the JD(U) by the Congress that Mamata Banerjee might have an issue with Nitish Kumar being appointed as the convener. This is appeared to have irritated Kumar a lot that he advised Congress that they could as properly decide for Lalu Prasad Yadav as the convener.

Kumar can also be upset that regardless that he performed an instrumental half in getting Mamata Banerjee and Arvind Kejriwal on the identical desk as the Congress, he was not given his due.

For the 72-year-old, who additionally holds the honour of being Bihar’s longest-serving chief minister, his alliance with the RJD in the state can also be teetering. Nitish Kumar has been upset with the Lalu Prasad Yadav-led RJD, blaming them for impacting governance. He has additionally slammed RJD ministers in his Cabinet for taking ‘important decisions’ with out his session, reported the NDTV.

However, a tweet by Lalu’s daughter, Rohini Acharya, appeared to be the ultimate straw. Earlier, Nitish Kumar, at an occasion to mark Karpoori Thakur’s delivery anniversary, had taken potshots at political events selling relations in politics. Reacting to the feedback, Lalu’s daughter had written on X, “Some people declare themselves as socialist stalwarts but their ideology changes like the wind.”

“Often, people cannot see their own shortcomings but continue to throw mud at others with impudence,” she wrote in one other tweet. Incidentally, these posts have since been deleted.

However, it appears that evidently the harm has been achieved. At the time, surprisingly, the BJP had sided with Nitish and demanded an apology from Lalu’s daughter.

Another ‘palti’ in the making?

If Nitish Kumar does, in truth, change sides on Sunday, he’ll rightly be known as ‘Paltu Ram’ of Bihar politics.

The JD(U) chief had first parted methods with the BJP forward of the 2014 basic elections. In the run-up to the November 2015 elections to the 243-member state Assembly, Nitish joined palms with archrival Lalu Prasad-led RJD and the Congress and another smaller events to kind a ‘Grand Alliance’ which gained 178 seats, with Nitish once more taking up as the chief minister.

In 2017, he walked out of the Mahagathbandhan and joined palms with the BJP as soon as once more. But that return didn’t final lengthy and in August of 2022, he as soon as once more walked away from the BJP and joined palms with the RJD.

What occurs to the INDIA bloc?

Nitish’s potential ‘ghar wapsi’ with the BJP doesn’t bode properly for the INDIA alliance. But as of now, it appears that evidently the RJD and Congress don’t appear too perturbed. A Bihar Congress chief, Prem Chandra Mishra, advised ANI, “I can say with confidence Nitish Kumar will remain with the alliance… (he) has resolved to throw BJP out and we trust him.”

RJD social gathering spokesperson Shakti Yadav stated the tie-up discuss mirrored a “scared” BJP and Deputy Chief Minister Tejashwi Yadav spoke in regards to the state authorities fulfilling its guarantees on employment.

But if it does occur, it’s a win-win for the BJP and can be damaging to the INDIA grouping, which is already in doldrums with West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee and Punjab chief minister Bhagwant Singh Mann saying that their events, the TMC and AAP respectively, will go solo in the Lok Sabha elections anticipated in April-May.

With inputs from companies